Ongoing emphasis by central banks around the world that monetary policy cannot be the only game in town in the face of a global slowdown. There was no discussion of cutting rates as soon as today, Draghi says. That has been proven almost certainly wrong, but there might still be some action before he leaves. He goes through the statement in some more detail, emphasising the easing bias in the notes. On the ECB decision: The German government needs to reverse course on fiscal policy to counteract high global risks and uncertainty. And now on to the questions. Draghi put the cat amongst the pigeons by saying that the ECB had not discussed cutting rates at this meeting, perhaps contradicting some over-eager traders betting on an immediate loosening of policy.
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The danger is that investors become too complacent, relying fully on accommodative monetary policy, and ignore the late-cycle risks that are lingering in the background. That sets September as a clear date for any move. Draghi was clearly prepared for it, as he read a long list of concerns from his notes. Trade wars and, bingo, a hard Brexit, are also risks to the outlook, he says. No discussion at all on rate cuts can be treated as a lack of urgency on the ECB side. Threads collapsed expanded unthreaded.